The question of training and running pace is one of the main concerns for runners.
- Running too fast puts you at risk of injury or having to drop out of the race.
- Running too slowly limits progress and wastes time.
The difficulty lies in the fact that every runner has different abilities. A comfortable pace for one runner will be exhausting for another. It is therefore essential to determine your own intensity zones, tailored to your current level.
This Protéalpes report presents four methods and tools for calculating target paces, from field tests accessible to all to laboratory analysis for the most demanding athletes. It also details which method to choose according to your profile and goals, to move from approximation to precision.
Which method should you choose based on your profile?
Before detailing the different approaches, here is a simple guide to help you choose the method best suited to your situation.
Method 1: The basic 5 km test
Empirical rules allow you to estimate your performance over different distances based on a reference time.
- Jack Daniels' VDOT tables, which provide consistent times for the same level of performance from 5 km to marathon distance.
- Riegel's formulaT2=T1×(D2/D1)1.06, experimentally validated as fairly reliable from 1 mile to half marathon, and reasonable up to marathon distance with greater error.
To test yourself, run 5 km at full speed to measure your current level. Your pace over this distance will serve as a reference for calculating your target pace over certain distances.
Comparison of prediction methods
VDOT Tables (Jack Daniels) vs. Riegel Formula
10 km
Half marathon (21.097 km)
Marathon (26.222 miles)
Concrete example
Test performed:5 km in 25 minutes(pace5 minutes per km).
- Estimated 10 km pace: 5’10–5’15/km → approximately 51’30–52’30
- Estimated half marathon pace: 5’25–5’30/km → approximately 1h54–1h56
- Estimated marathon pace: 6:00–6:05/km → approximately 4:13–4:17
Rule of thumb starting at 5 km
For a typical runner who is properly trained for endurance:
- 10 km pace ≈ 5 km pace+ 10 to 15 seconds/km
- Half marathon pace ≈ 5 km pace+ 25 to 35 seconds/km
- Marathon pace ≈ 5 km pace+ 55 to 70 seconds/km
| Strengths of this method | Limits |
|---|---|
| Simple, accessible, and free. It requires no special equipment or advanced technical knowledge. It is an excellent starting point for any runner who wants to structure their goals. | The formulas provide a theoretical estimate based on the assumption of appropriate training. Without prior work on endurance or the necessary volume, actual performance over long distances will be lower than predicted. |
Please note that this method has the advantage of being very simple. It allows you to easily set performance goals for events and use them as inspiration to adapt your training. However, it does not allow you to set precise thresholds for these training sessions, which the following methods will make possible.
Method 2: indirectly, via maximum heart rate
This is one of the most common methods for calculating training paces.
It involves measuring your maximum heart rate (MHR) through a progressive exercise test or estimating it using the formula 220 – age, although the latter has a margin of error of ±10-15 beats.
For training zones, refer to the percentage of MHR: basic endurance (60-70% MHR), aerobic threshold (70-80% MHR), and anaerobic threshold (80-90% MHR).
A more accurate alternative uses the heart rate reserve (HRR): HRR = MHR – resting HR, then calculate the target zone using the Karvonen formula (target HR = resting HR + % intensity × (MHR − resting HR).)
The FCM/Karvonen formulas alone do not provide a precise target pace for a 10K, half marathon, or marathon, as VDOT or Riegel calculators do.
Once these zones have been defined, experience and/or testing can be used to assign an approximate pace range to each zone (for example: basic endurance at 65% MHR corresponds to 6:00–6:15/km on flat terrain).
Measure your resting heart rate in the morning when you wake up.
Target heart rate zones
FCM method vs. Karvonen formula (KRF)
| Training zone | FCM method (%) | Karvonen formula (KRF) |
|---|---|---|
| Basic endurance (60-70% MHR) | - - | - - |
| Aerobic threshold (70-80% MHR) | - - | - - |
| Anaerobic threshold (80-90% MHR) | - - | - - |
Viewing areas
| Strengths of this method | Limits |
|---|---|
| It allows you to manage intensity in real time, which is particularly useful for avoiding running too fast during easy runs. It also adapts to external conditions (heat, fatigue, elevation). | Heart rate can be influenced by many factors (stress, dehydration, temperature). It is not a substitute for a performance test to set specific time goals for races. |
Method 3: The VMA test
For experienced runners, the VMA (maximum aerobic speed) test on the track allows specific paces to be established: endurance at 65-75% VMA, threshold at 85-90% VMA, interval training at 95-105% VMA.
Formula based on % VMA:
- Basic endurance: 65-75% VMA
- Active endurance: 75-85% VMA
- Anaerobic threshold: 85-90% VMA
- Short VMA: 95-100% VMA
Example for VMA = 15 km/h:
- 70% VMA = 10.5 km/h = pace 5'43/km
- 80% VMA = 12 km/h = pace 5’00/km
- 90% VMA = 13.5 km/h = pace 4'26/km
Determined via a VMA test on the track
| Strengths of this method | Limits |
|---|---|
| It is the go-to tool for structuring interval training and improving speed. It is widely used by coaches and experienced runners. | VMA measures maximum aerobic capacity, but does not directly predict marathon performance. A runner with a high VMA but little endurance will not be able to maintain their pace over 42 km. |
Method 4: Laboratory analysis
Laboratory testing to analyze your lactate threshold provides optimal accuracy for customizing your training zones.
In practical terms, the test is usually carried out on a treadmill (or sometimes on a track) using a stepwise protocol: the speed is increased every 3 to 5 minutes, while a small drop of blood is taken from the finger or earlobe at the end of each step to measure the lactate concentration.
By plotting the "running speed/blood lactate" curve, the specialist identifies your main physiological thresholds:
- the first threshold (aerobic), where lactate begins to rise but remains well controlled;
- the second threshold (anaerobic), beyond which lactate increases rapidly and the effort becomes difficult to sustain for long periods.
Based on this data, the laboratory generally provides:
- specific paces (or power outputs) for each zone: basic endurance, tempo, threshold, intensive work;
- corresponding heart rate ranges, allowing you to simply use your heart rate monitor in the field.
| Strengths of this method | Limits |
|---|---|
| Maximum objectivity and advanced personalization. By repeating the test every 6 to 12 months, it becomes possible to accurately track your progress and adjust your zones according to physiological adaptations. | High cost (generally between €80 and €150), limited access (laboratories or specialized centers), and one-time results. This method is particularly relevant for runners engaged in intensive training or those preparing for an ambitious time goal. |
Conclusion
The calculators and tests presented in this article are useful tools for structuring your training and setting your goals. But it is important to remember thatno formula can replace real-world experience.
The ability to maintain a pace depends on many factors: training history, effort management, weather conditions, course profile, and how fresh you feel on the day. Formulas provide a solid foundation, but it is by gradually testing your target paces during specific outings that you refine your feel and confidence.
- Start simple: a 5 or 10 km test is more than enough to get started and obtain reliable benchmarks.
- Adjust gradually: test your target pace during training runs before applying it in a race.
- Listen to your body: if a pace seems too difficult despite your calculations, adjust it. It is better to run slightly below your theoretical capacity than to start too fast and burn out.
- Track your progress: retake the test every 2 to 3 months to adjust your zones based on your progress.
By combining these tools with a realistic and progressive approach, it becomes possible to maximize your chances of achieving your goals while enjoying your races and training sessions.
