A good marathon time predictor doesn't come up with a "magic" time based on a simple VMA test or a whim of the moment.
The literature shows that there is no single perfect formula that works for all runners, all profiles, and all races.
The Protéalpes calculator starts with a recent 10K, half-marathon, or marathon time, applies a projection formula, and then adjusts that initial result based on what really matters over long distances:
- the endurance index,
- training volume,
- the long run,
- the course and the weather.
Estimated marathon time and average pace
Benchmark performance
For the freshness of the reference; if empty, a neutral assumption is used.
Profile
Preparation & Course
Sports & Endurance Drink
- Performance during exercise
- 40 to 60 g of carbohydrates/hour
- Gluten-free
What is the formula for predicting the weather?
The best-known basis is Riegel's formula:
T2 = T1 × (D2 / D1)^k
Let T1 be the time taken to cover a known distance, D1 be that distance, D2 be the target distance, and k be an endurance coefficient.
In practice, many calculators use a coefficient close to 1.06.
For example, if you ran a half-marathon in 1 hour and 45 minutes, the rough estimate is about 3 hours and 38 minutes for a full marathon.
But there’s one important caveat to note right away: this approach works fairly well up to the half marathon, but often proves overly optimistic for the full marathon among recreational runners.
A study of recreational runners shows that it underestimated marathon times, with predictions that were at least 10 minutes too fast for half of the runners. 1
That is precisely why a good calculator doesn't stop at Riegel: it adjusts the result based on your profile, your experience, your personalized training plan, and your actual endurance.
When you have more training data available, another useful approach is to use critical speed. A 2020 study shows that this metric, calculated based on race results or training data, can predict marathon performance with an average margin of error of around 8%, while also helping to determine a more realistic race pace.2
How do you calculate your marathon pace?
Calculating your marathon pace is simple:
average pace = estimated time / 42.195 km
If your estimated time is 4:00, your target pace is 5:41 per kilometer. If you're aiming for 3:30, your target pace is 4:59 per kilometer.
This is the basis for any pace calculator, any pace chart, and any average speed calculation. From this, you can then calculate your marathon split times:
- Goal for 4:00: 10 km in 56:52, half marathon in 1:59:59, 30 km in 2:50:44
- Goal: 3 hours 30 minutes – 10 km in 49:46, half marathon in 1:44:59, 30 km in 2:29:15
Marathon Pace Chart and Split Times
| Allure | Speed | Level | 1 km | 5 miles | 10 km | 15 km | 20 km | Semi | 25 km | 30 km | 35 km | 40 km | marathon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:00 a.m. | 20 | World Elite | 3:00 a.m. | 3:00 PM | 30:00:00 | 45:00:00 | 1:00 | 1:03:18 | 1 hour and 15 minutes | 1 hour 30 minutes | 1 hour 45 minutes | 2:00 | 2:06:35 |
| 3:15 a.m. | 18,46 | National Elite | 3:15 a.m. | 4:15 PM | 32:30:00 | 48:45:00 | 1 hour and 5 minutes | 1:08:34 | 1 hour and 21 minutes and 15 seconds | 1 hour, 37 minutes, and 30 seconds | 1 hour, 53 minutes, 45 seconds | 2 hours and 10 minutes | 2:17:08 |
| 3:30 a.m. | 17,14 | Elite | 3:30 a.m. | 5:30 p.m. | 35:00:00 | 52:30:00 | 1 hour 10 minutes | 1 hour, 13 minutes, 50 seconds | 1 hour and 27 minutes and 30 seconds | 1 hour 45 minutes | 2 hours and 2 minutes and 30 seconds | 2 hours and 20 minutes | 2:27:41 |
| 3:45 a.m. | 16 | Very good | 3:45 a.m. | 6:45 p.m. | 37:30:00 | 56:15:00 | 1 hour and 15 minutes | 1:19:07 | 1 hour, 33 minutes, 45 seconds | 1 hour 52 minutes 30 seconds | 2:11:15 | 2 hours and 30 minutes | 2:38:14 |
| 4:00 a.m. | 15 | Under 2 hours 49 minutes | 4:00 a.m. | 8:00 p.m. | 40:00:00 | 1:00 | 1 hour 20 minutes | 1:24:23 | 1 hour 40 minutes | 2:00 | 2 hours and 20 minutes | 2 hours 40 minutes | 2:48:47 |
| 4:15 a.m. | 14,12 | Under 3 hours | 4:15 a.m. | 9:15 PM | 42:30:00 | 1 hour 3 minutes 45 seconds | 1 hour 25 minutes | 1 hour 29 minutes 40 seconds | 1 hour, 46 minutes, 15 seconds | 2 hours and 7 minutes and 30 seconds | 2:28:45 | 2 hours and 50 minutes | 2:59:20 |
| 4:30 a.m. | 13,33 | Under 3 hours and 10 minutes | 4:30 a.m. | 10:30 p.m. | 45:00:00 | 1 hour and 7 minutes and 30 seconds | 1 hour 30 minutes | 1 hour, 34 minutes, 56 seconds | 1 hour 52 minutes 30 seconds | 2 hours and 15 minutes | 2 hours, 37 minutes, and 30 seconds | 3:00 | 3:09:53 |
| 4:45 a.m. | 12,63 | Under 3 hours and 21 minutes | 4:45 a.m. | 11:45 p.m. | 47:30:00 | 1 hour 11 minutes 15 seconds | 1 hour and 35 minutes | 1 hour, 40 minutes, 13 seconds | 1 hour, 58 minutes, and 45 seconds | 2 hours and 22 minutes and 30 seconds | 2:46:15 | 3:10 a.m. | 3:20:26 |
| 5:00 a.m. | 12 | Under 3 hours and 31 minutes | 5:00 a.m. | 25:00:00 | 50:00:00 | 1 hour and 15 minutes | 1 hour 40 minutes | 1 hour, 45 minutes, and 29 seconds | 2:05:00 | 2 hours and 30 minutes | 2 hours and 55 minutes | 3:20:00 | 3:30:58 |
| 5:15 a.m. | 11,43 | Under 3 hours 42 minutes | 5:15 a.m. | 26:15:00 | 52:30:00 | 1:18:45 | 1 hour 45 minutes | 1 hour 50 minutes and 46 seconds | 2:11:15 | 2 hours, 37 minutes, and 30 seconds | 3:03:45 | 3:30 | 3:41:31 |
| 5:30 a.m. | 10,91 | Under 3 hours 52 minutes | 5:30 a.m. | 27:30:00 | 55:00:00 | 1 hour and 22 minutes and 30 seconds | 1 hour 50 minutes | 1:56:02 | 2 hours and 17 minutes and 30 seconds | 2 hours and 45 minutes | 3:12:30 | 3:40:00 | 3:52:04 |
| 5:45 a.m. | 10,43 | Under 4:03 | 5:45 a.m. | 28:45:00 | 57:30:00 | 1 hour 26 minutes and 15 seconds | 1 hour 55 minutes | 2:01:19 | 2:23:45 | 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 30 seconds | 3:21:15 | 3 hours and 50 minutes | 4:02:37 |
| 6:00 a.m. | 10 | Under 4 hours and 13 minutes | 6:00 a.m. | 30:00:00 | 1:00 | 1 hour 30 minutes | 2:00 | 2:06:35 | 2 hours and 30 minutes | 3:00 | 3:30 | 4:00 a.m. | 4:13:10 |
| 6:15 a.m. | 9,6 | Under 4 hours and 24 minutes | 6:15 a.m. | 31:15:00 | 1 hour and 2 minutes and 30 seconds | 1 hour, 33 minutes, 45 seconds | 2:05:00 | 2:11:52 | 2:36:15 | 3:07:30 | 3:38:45 | 4:10 a.m. | 4:23:43 |
| 6:30 a.m. | 9,23 | Under 4 hours and 35 minutes | 6:30 a.m. | 32:30:00 | 1 hour and 5 minutes | 1 hour, 37 minutes, and 30 seconds | 2 hours and 10 minutes | 2:17:08 | 2 hours, 42 minutes, and 30 seconds | 3:15 a.m. | 3 hours, 47 minutes, and 30 seconds | 4:20 a.m. | 4:34:16 |
| 6:45 a.m. | 8,89 | Under 4 hours and 45 minutes | 6:45 a.m. | 33:45:00 | 1 hour and 7 minutes and 30 seconds | 1 hour, 41 minutes, 15 seconds | 2 hours and 15 minutes | 2:22:24 | 2:48:45 | 3:22:30 | 3:56:15 | 4:30 a.m. | 4:44:49 |
| 7:00 a.m. | 8,57 | Under 4 hours and 56 minutes | 7:00 a.m. | 35:00:00 | 1 hour 10 minutes | 1 hour 45 minutes | 2 hours and 20 minutes | 2:27:41 | 2 hours and 55 minutes | 3:30 | 4:05:00 | 4:40:00 | 4:55:22 |
| 7:15 a.m. | 8,28 | Under 5:07 | 7:15 a.m. | 36:15:00 | 1 hour and 12 minutes and 30 seconds | 1 hour 48 minutes and 45 seconds | 2 hours and 25 minutes | 2:32:57 | 3:01:15 | 3:37:30 | 4:13:45 | 4 hours and 50 minutes | 5:05:55 |
| 7:30 a.m. | 8 | Sub 5:17 | 7:30 a.m. | 37:30:00 | 1 hour and 15 minutes | 1 hour 52 minutes 30 seconds | 2 hours and 30 minutes | 2:38:14 | 3:07:30 | 3:45:00 | 4:22:30 | 5:00 a.m. | 5:16:28 |
| 8:00 a.m. | 7,5 | Under 5:38 | 8:00 a.m. | 40:00:00 | 1 hour 20 minutes | 2:00 | 2 hours 40 minutes | 2:48:47 | 3:20:00 | 4:00 a.m. | 4:40:00 | 5:20 a.m. | 5:37:34 |
You can download this pace chart for free here.
However, aiming for a certain pace doesn’t mean maintaining it perfectly from start to finish. Research on pacing shows that the most common strategy in marathons is positive pacing: runners slow down in the second half of the race.
A 2024 systematic review reports that the vast majority of studies observe this pattern, and a 2026 study shows that the slowdown becomes particularly noticeable after the halfway point, and even more so between the 30-kilometer mark and the finish line.
What is the average time for a marathon?
There is no single universal average time, as it all depends on the country, the level of the field, gender, age, and the type of race.
That said, a very large global dataset analyzed by RunRepeat put the average marathon time at 4:29:53. A more recent study published in 2026 found, in its own sample, an average of 4:17:03 for men and 4:32:45 for women. These figures should not be taken as absolute targets, but rather as benchmarks for placing a time within the context of the marathon world.3
It is also important to strike a balance between recreational and elite levels. Today, the official men’s world record remains 2:00:35, set by Kelvin Kiptum at the 2023 Chicago Marathon, while the women’s world record in a mixed-gender race is 2:09:56, set by Ruth Chepngetich, also in Chicago in 2024.
In addition, World Athletics recognizes a women’s record in women-only races, held by Tigst Assefa with a time of 2:15:50 at the 2025 London Marathon. In other words: comparing your first marathon to Eliud Kipchoge, Brigid Kosgei, Berlin, Boston, London, or New York isn’t particularly helpful when setting your target pace.
How do you estimate your marathon time?
The best way to estimate your marathon time is to combine:
- a recent timed run of 10 km or, better yet, a half marathon;
- anendurance indicator;
- training context: weekly mileage, long run, consistency;
- Race conditions: weather, heat, elevation gain, and pacing goals.
In fact, the literature shows thattraining history accounts for a large portion of marathon performance, even more so than other variables. Previous times, weekly mileage, average training pace, and pace management during the race account for a significant portion of the variance in the final result.
The estimate must also be adjusted for weather conditions. Heat gradually reduces marathon performance as the WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) rises, and this effect penalizes slower runners even more.
Other studies confirm that temperature, humidity, wind, and solar radiation influence endurance performance (which is easy to observe). That is why a good time predictor should never promise a time “down to the tenth of a second”: it should provide an estimated time, a realistic range, and split times tailored to race day.4
In a nutshell
- The Protéalpes calculator is based on a simple idea: start with a recent performance, use Riegel’s formula as a baseline, and then adjust it based on your endurance, training, and race conditions.
- This is the most effective wayto estimate your time, calculate your marathon pace, and set a realistic goal—especially for your first marathon.
Scientific references and sources
2 Calculation of Critical Speed from Raw Training Data in Recreational Marathon Runners by Barry Smyth et al.
3 Pacing strategies in marathons: A systematic review by Jungong Sha et al.
4 The Determinants of Marathon Performance: An Observational Analysis of Anthropometric, Pre-race, and In-race Variables by Alison Keogh et al.
